SemiAnalysis: Memory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom#
| URL | https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/memory-mania-how-a-once-in-four-decades |
| Published | 2026-02-06 |
| Read | 2026-09-26 (free section only) |
| Paywall | Cuts in before the forecasts: DRAM/HBM supply and demand to 2027, HBM4 qualification by supplier, wafer and bit capacity with the HBM breakdown, fab-by-fab node migration, DRAM price forecasts to 2027, end-of-cycle timing factors, EUV layers and equipment capex |
Summary (our words)#
The free section is historical context: memory prices have been rising sharply since late 2024. Past cycles (1993–94, 2010, 2017–18, COVID) show margins and cash flow spiking in shortages. The industry has consolidated from 20+ suppliers in the mid-1990s to 3–4 today. DRAM density scaling has slowed to about 2× per decade, against about 100× in the peak era, so shrinking the process no longer adds bits cheaply. The numeric forecasts are all paywalled.
Claims#
| ID | Claim | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| SA-memmania-1 | DRAM density has grown only about 2× in the past decade, against about 100× per decade at peak scaling | Free section |
| SA-memmania-2 | The industry has consolidated to 3–4 material suppliers | Free section |
| SA-memmania-3 | AI takes about 70% of DRAM wafer capacity by 2027, up from 12% in 2023; most added capacity goes to HBM and crowds out commodity DRAM | Search-engine summary of SemiAnalysis coverage; not seen in the free text we read |
| SA-memmania-4 | Profit on conventional DDR rose close to, or above, the level at which HBM was contracted; "this dynamic is not the case anymore as of 2026" | Search-engine summary; wording ambiguous |
Our notes#
- Claims 1 and 2 explain why supply can't respond quickly. Adding bits now needs new wafers (new fabs), not shrinks, and a consolidated industry has no incentive to overbuild.
- Claim 3 is the strongest number for our node, but we haven't read it in context.
- Claim 4 matters for the 2027 HBM negotiation: when DDR earns as much as HBM, makers stop shifting further wafers to HBM.