TrendForce: Diverging Memory Market Outlook in 2027 as DRAM Supply Remains Tight While NAND Flash Supply Conditions Ease#
| URL | https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260730-13158.html |
| Published | 2026-07-30 (press release) |
| Read | 2026-09-26 (full press release) |
Summary (our words)#
DRAM and NAND head in opposite directions in 2027.
DRAM: undersupplied by about 1–2% in 2026, and the gap widens in 2027 because demand growth outpaces supply growth. New capacity doesn't ramp meaningfully until 2H 2027 at the earliest; substantial output arrives in 2028. The causes:
- HBM's higher wafer consumption;
- AI server demand;
- new CPU platforms;
- agentic AI;
- more memory per server.
Prices stay elevated through 2027.
NAND: supply turns positive in 2027 because adding layers and new fabs raise bit output sharply while consumer demand is weak. Prices come under downward pressure.
Claims#
| ID | Claim | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| TF-0730-1 | DRAM undersupply about 1–2% in 2026, widening in 2027 | "demand growth continues to outpace supply expansion" |
| TF-0730-2 | New DRAM capacity ramps meaningfully in 2H 2027 at the earliest; substantial output in 2028 | Press release |
| TF-0730-3 | DRAM prices stay elevated through 2027 | Press release |
| TF-0730-4 | NAND supply turns positive in 2027; prices face downward pressure | Press release |
Our notes#
- Independent of SemiAnalysis, and it agrees on DRAM timing.
- The only primary source here on NAND. It's why our SSD line is flat now and falls later, unlike DRAM.