A. Memory cycle (DRAM, HBM, GDDR7, NAND)#

Status: Plan Last verified: 2026-09-26 Canonical for: the Gemini Deep Research prompt for the memory-cycle workstream

Feeds decisions 1 (PC4 timing) and 3 (resale floor). Paste everything in the block below.

CONTEXT
I run a small AI inference business in Malaysia (image and video generation). In September 2026 I bought three consumer PCs, each with one NVIDIA RTX 5090 (32 GB), a Ryzen 9 9950X, 64–128 GB DDR5 and a PCIe 5.0 NVMe drive, for about RM115,000 in total (roughly USD 27,000). They serve my baseline load; bursts and jobs that need more than 32 GB of VRAM go to serverless cloud GPUs. I do not need data-centre redundancy; brief downtime is acceptable because traffic fails over to the cloud.

Amortised over 36 months with local electricity, the owned cost works out to roughly USD 0.40 per GPU-hour when the nodes are busy. My planning horizon is October 2026 to September 2029.

The decisions this research informs:
1. Whether and when to buy a fourth node (now, after memory prices fall, or never).
2. The rental price at which owning becomes the wrong call. The relevant alternative is a dedicated GPU server with fast local NVMe, not per-second serverless.
3. What a used RTX 5090 will be worth in 18–36 months.
4. Malaysia-specific risks to the cost of owning.

TASK: THE MEMORY CYCLE
Research the current state and 36-month outlook of the memory market as it affects consumer PC and consumer GPU prices. Answer these questions:

1. Where are DRAM (DDR5), GDDR7 and NAND (consumer PCIe 5.0 SSD) prices now, contract and spot, and how have they moved over the last 12 months? Give the latest available monthly or quarterly figures.
2. How much DRAM wafer capacity has shifted to HBM, and how long does that squeeze on DDR5 and GDDR7 last? What do Samsung, SK hynix and Micron say in their most recent earnings calls and guidance (including Micron's late-September 2026 results if available)?
3. When does new capacity arrive? List announced fabs and expansions (for example SK hynix M15X and Yongin, Samsung P4/P5, Micron Idaho and New York, Kioxia and SanDisk, and others) with expected production dates, and whether any have been pulled forward or delayed.
4. China: how fast are CXMT (DRAM, including DDR5 and LPDDR5) and YMTC (NAND) ramping, what share could they reach, and do export controls on equipment cap them? Could they realistically push down global commodity DRAM or NAND prices within 36 months?
5. GDDR7 specifically: who supplies it, is supply tight, and are 3 GB modules changing what consumer GPUs ship with?
6. Historically, how long after a memory price peak does the bust arrive, and how deep is it? Do today's leading indicators (inventory weeks, capital spending, spot-versus-contract spread, equipment orders) point to a peak, and when?
7. Would a new low-memory AI model architecture, or a slowdown in AI spending, change the HBM squeeze, and how fast would that pass through to consumer memory prices?

Tell me what this means for (a) the cost of building a fourth node of the same spec in 6, 12 and 24 months, and (b) the resale value of the DDR5 and NVMe parts in my existing nodes.

SOURCES
- Today is late September 2026. Prioritise sources published in the last 90 days. Use older material only as a historical baseline, and label it as such.
- Prefer leading and primary sources: independent semiconductor analysts (for example SemiAnalysis), market trackers (for example TrendForce), company earnings calls and transcripts, regulatory filings, price indices, marketplace price histories and sold listings, supply-chain reporting.
- Investment banks, consultancies and auditors are acceptable but usually lag. When you cite them, say so.
- Where credible sources disagree, show both positions with their reasoning. Do not average them.
- Give a URL for every sourced claim.

OUTPUT FORMAT
1. Answer: at most 10 bullets answering the questions above directly, with numbers.
2. Evidence table with columns: claim | number | as-of date | source (URL) | observed / forecast / rumour | leading / lagging.
3. Scenarios for October 2026 to September 2029: base, upside and downside for my position. For each: a rough probability, what happens to the prices that matter to me, and the indicator that would tell me early that this scenario is unfolding.
4. What would change the call: concrete thresholds (indicator, level, where to watch it, how often it updates).
5. Unknowns: what you could not find or could not verify.

Do not give generic investment advice or stock recommendations. Keep the focus on the decisions above.